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2006 Fire Season Fact Sheet and Outlook It’s always difficult to say what how the fire season will be. Never ask a firefighter, if you want a good answer. They will always tell it will be a "big" year. If it rained they’ll say that the brush is thick and green from all the rain "..and its really gonna burn in August!" If its been dry, they’ll say that the drought has really dried the brush out "..and its really gonna burn in August!" I’ll tell you definitively how the 2006 season will be in November. In the mean time, we can look at some indicators provided by our weather service brothers and sisters. The following summary is taken from the Northwest Coordination Center’s website. Here is the link to the whole document: http://www.nwccweb.us/content/products/intelligence/executive_summary.pdfA. Introduction Most of the Northwest Geographic Area remains poised to undergo a NORMAL fire season in 2006... The Okanogan region on the east slopes of the northern Washington Cascades has potential to have a busier than normal fire season owing to persistent drought an dry fuels, particularly at lower elevations…The Olympic peninsula of western Washington has been added for above normal fire potential due to drought lasting through late spring and the early summer months. It should be kept in mind that the most important component of fire season potential is the weather during the fire season. Preceding winter and spring precipitation can help set the stage for an early or delayed fire season. A shorter season is statistically less likely to be severe than a longer one. Fuel moistures in early July appear to be running around average except in western Washington where the drought has boosted fire danger indices abnormally high. B. Current Conditions What we know:
C. Weather and Climate Outlook What we are predicting for July, August and September
The potential for a large active fire season depends upon the severity of drying during the peak months of July and August combined with the frequency of lightning outbreaks. The forecasted stronger southwest monsoon may result in more frequent moisture surges of moisture into Oregon east of the Cascades from Klamath Falls to John Day to Baker City. Lightning from these surges has so far been sufficient to ignite many small fires that have challenged initial attack capability. Several large fires have resulted in southeast Oregon rangelands from lightning. Central Washington has also suffered from a number of large grass fires so far this season. D. Fire Occurrence and Acreage A normal fire season will result in about 10-15,000 acres burned on state protected forest land in Oregon and 10-15000 acres in Washington. Acreage burned on federal land in the two states during a normal season would be approximately 85,000 to 160,000 acres. E. Summary The Pacific Northwest experienced a generally wet winter that extended into early spring with an abundant snowpack under weak La Nina conditions. This can delay the onset of fire season by several weeks but warm late spring weather negated the effects of winter and early spring precipitation. Surges of moisture from the south have already produced numerous thunderstorms with abundant lightning in eastern Oregon and sections of eastern Washington. DO YOUR PART. If you go camping…make sure you follow all burning restrictions. If you ride ATV’s, stay on trail and make sure you have a spark arrestor. If you smoke, stay inside a vehicle with an ashtray when your in the woods. Never throw burning material out the window. |
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